Next Monday afternoon Governor General Adrienne Clarkson will rise to outline the government's agenda as she reads the Speech from the Throne. While we do not know its exact contents, we can make some educated guesses as to what it is likely to contain given the unfulfilled commitments from the last Throne Speech (January 2001) and recent statements from the Prime Minister.

The last Throne Speech focussed on two themes, "innovation" and "inclusion". For next week's effort we can safely add a third theme, "investment": A catchall bureaucrateeze term for government spending. In fairness, these themes, the three "I's" if you will, are laudable objectives for any government policy agenda. But the devil is in the details and how they will be implemented.

For example, innovation can be fostered through progressive tax policy such as abolishing the capital tax on businesses (a $1.4 billion annual revenue haul for the feds) or innovation can be botched via the expansion of the federal government's existing corporate welfare and regional development framework (a $4 billion boondoggle).

Simply put, "innovation" as a theme unto itself is relatively neutral, it is the choice of fiscal instruments that determines whether the innovation agenda will succeed or fail. This analysis rings equally true for "inclusion" and "investment".

So how will these themes translate and be articulated in the Throne Speech? Short answer: Big, expansionist, and intrusive government. But don't take my word for it, let's go right to the top and look at what Prime Minister Chretien said on August 20th (the day before he announced his retirement plans) in Chicoutimi, Quebec.

The PM has made several speeches telegraphing his Throne Speech intentions over the summer and earlier this month, but his August 20th effort was the most direct in offering a sneak-peak of the government's agenda.

He said: "We are now extremely well positioned to pursue an activist agenda for the rest of our mandate. An agenda whose foundation is an unswerving commitment to the fiscal discipline that has brought about an era of balanced budgets, lower taxes and debt repayment."

The key phrase here is "activist agenda". Oh sure the PM pays lip service to balanced budgets, etc, but we should remember that this so-called "fiscal discipline" was mostly a product of Ontario's and Alberta's miraculous economic growth (boosting federal revenues) combined with ripping off Canadian workers and employers to the tune of $42 billion in Employment Insurance overpayments.

Mr. Chretien then went on to state: "But our Liberal agenda recognizes that this healthy balance sheet will only remain healthy if we continue, as well, to make strategic, long term investments in our social and economic infrastructure: in learning, in children, and in the environment."

Of course learning (a good thing) will be closely tied with the innovation agenda (a bad thing, the way the Liberals have rolled it out). As for children, expect another meaningless commitment on eradicating - or at least fighting - child poverty. Remember the last commitment made by Canada at the U.N.? Child poverty was to be eliminated by the year 2000. Need I say more?

Family breakdowns and a host of other social problems - beyond the realm of rectification by government sponsored social engineers - can only really be solved by mature people, and the non-government institutions of civil society, who once again must take responsibility for their actions and those of their children.

The Throne Speech will also (for the umpteenth time) promise action, strategies, investments not to mention innovative-this and inclusive-that to address the tragic problems faced by native/aboriginal youth in Canada. However, past policy approaches (ie: more money, more money and surprise, surprise, more money) will not suffice. The very troubling issues of substance abuse, school dropouts, teen suicides for aboriginal youth all well above the average for Canadian youth as a whole are part and parcel of our failed approach to aboriginal policy as a whole.

Scrapping the Indian Act, reforming band elections, building greater capacity in native financing issues (although I acknowledge strides have been made) and experimenting with a regime of property rights on reserves would really foster "inclusion" of our aboriginal communities.

While several native accountability coalitions are advocating these reforms, sadly our $10 billion annual "Indian Industry", including the government, clings to the status quo.

Finally we have already seen the government's environmental agenda: Adoption of the Kyoto protocol. But if implementing this accord will actually be a net gain for our economy as David Suzuki and his disciples say it will be, why not go even further and faster?

Of course we can't because a $40 billion impact and 450,000 lost jobs over a decade will cripple our economy. Not to mention the billions we will pay to foreign powers to buy their unused emissions credits. Are you willing to sacrifice your job, mortgage and family for the environment? This seems like a pretty steep price to pay for Jean Chretien's legacy.

Innovation, inclusion and investment. After next week's Throne Speech, these may become four letter words as far as taxpayers are concerned.