Digging ourselves quite the hole
In reading Wednesday's provincial budget, Will Rogers' famous quote comes to mind: "If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging."
Program spending for the 2006-07 budget is up 10 per cent over last year's budget, adding up to a 40 per cent increase over the last five years and a mind-boggling 121 per cent over the last decade. Program spending continues to outpace both inflation and population growth, which has increased by 13 per cent and 8 per cent respectively over the last five years.
As for specific ministries; Advanced Education is up 25 per cent, Children's Services up 16 per cent, Economic Development up 12 per cent, Seniors and Community Supports up 12 per cent, and, of course, Health and Wellness is up yet another 10 per cent.
Even more worrisome for taxpayers is that the $28 billion in program spending declared Wednesday will be a low-ball estimate. If history is any indication (and it usually is) the Tory government will increase program spending by $1.5 billion during the fiscal year, as it has done in each of the past four.
It gets better. If you thought the government didn't dig a big enough hole with program spending, its capital plan spending is set to skyrocket 45 per cent over the next three years. With program spending out of control and the inflationary cost of capital projects and roadway building reaching 20 per cent annually, perhaps someone should take the shovel out of its hands.
But times are good, we're told. We're rolling in oil and gas revenues, right? True, but that is precisely why taxpayers should be worried.
What would you do if you received a one-time $10,000 bonus on your paycheque this month? Would you use it to pay off your mortgage, put it toward your RRSPs or would you put down payments on a new car, a jet boat and a motor home?
If you were acting like our provincial government, the third option would be right up your alley.
Just as you shouldn't plan your lifestyle around a onetime bonus, the province shouldn't be planning our future around a non-renewable revenue source that could dry up at the whim of an OPEC sneeze or a particularly mild winter south of the border. The government is becoming more and more reliant on resource revenues to fund on-going program expenses.
In 2003 the government introduced a limit on how much revenue it could use from resource revenues to fund programs such as health care and education: $3.5 billion. This limit helped to ensure the government wouldn't fund necessary programs with an unpredictable and volatile revenue source.
Nonetheless, that limit was bumped to $4 billion in 2004, to $4.75 billion in 2005 and will now be bumped once again, to $5.3 billion in 2006.
If oil and gas prices dip to 1999-2000 levels, the Alberta government will have to start taking money out of savings or cut programs to ensure we don't go back into debt. Clearly this policy is wrongheaded and leverages our future prosperity against the spending whims of today.
As for the other side of the ledger, taxpayers will get $372 million in reductions in the coming year. A fraction of the $2.5 billion in new spending!
The brunt of those reductions come from dropping the corporate tax rate to 10 per cent. It's a far cry from the government's eight per cent commitment in Budget 2001, but welcome nonetheless.
Businesses are becoming more and more portable each day. For many businesses, the decision whether to locate their offices in Alberta, Ontario or Michigan is often based on which has the lower tax regime.
If these portable Alberta businesses see a better deal in another jurisdiction and leave, Albertans will lose jobs. Lower business taxes help keep prices down and create greater job security for many Albertans.
The government will undoubtedly tout the small increase to the basic personal exemption (BPE) and the increase to the health-care premium subsidy threshold as a significant tax cut, but for most Albertans, they won't amount to much.
The increase to the BPE will result in a mere $38 annual savings to the average taxpayer, and most Albertans won't see any benefit from the increased premium subsidy threshold.
Increasing the threshold is a needed first-step for those low-income Albertans who this will affect. However, it doesn't change the regressive nature of this tax, and the next step should be to eliminate the health-care premium tax outright.
The bottom line: for every $1 returned to taxpayers politicians will spend - wait for it - an additional $7. It's time for this government to stop digging.