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Fiscally Prudent Compared to What

Author: John Williamson 2004/03/24
Only by the peripatetic standards of the Liberal Party of Canada can the federal budget be described as "fiscally prudent." Perhaps it is if compared to Jean Chrétien's last budget in isolation - but that is nothing to brag about. A timid do-nothing budget is a more apt description.

Taxpayers will recall the former Prime Minister's last kick at the fiscal tin can when soft-headedness finally got the best of him. The 2003 budget - hyped up as a legacy bill by Liberal MPs anxious to put their old boss out to pasture - was fiscally irresponsible. It contained a dizzying number of multi-year program initiatives that hiked spending $16-billion over 2 years. Of course, Mr. Chrétien could act foolishly since he would not face the voters again. Prime Minister Paul Martin, however, would like to hang on to his job. He knows taxpayers are in a sour mood following revelations that Ottawa grossly mismanaged their tax dollars.

Ever since the happy day in 1998 when Ottawa balanced its budget and began churning out surpluses, spending has increased at a rapid pace. Program spending in 1998 stood at $110-billion (this figure excludes public debt charges). By 2003 - Mr. Chrétien's last year in office - program spending had risen to $143.5-billion. That is an increase of $33.5-billion or an astounding 30.5%. The average annual increase over this five-year period was 6.1%. So how do Mr. Martin's spending projections stack up next to this record This year spending will grow by $4.5-billion to $148-billion or by 3.1%. That is not exactly holding the line on spending growth, but it is an improvement.

The 2004 budget, however, also offers taxpayers a snapshot of where a Martin government will be in two years. The trend is alarming as spending is set to jump by an additional $8.2-billion. That is a 5.5% increase - not far off Mr. Chrétien's average. All said, if Mr. Martin's budget calls for an 8.9% spending increase over the next two-years. By what standard can this be labelled restraint

The Martin budget fails the responsibility test because it does nothing to slow future spending and nothing to balance tax revenues with spending priorities. Rather than controlling the size of government, spending will continue to rise at a gallop under Mr. Martin. If we include the Chrétien budgets, which have Mr. Martin's fingers prints all over them, by 2005 spending will be up 42% over 1998 levels.

Ottawa's spending increases should be limited to a maximum of inflation and population growth. Today, the government spends $4,658 on behalf of every citizen. Had spending kept pace with inflation and population growth at 1998 levels, per capita program spending would be $4,121 today. In other words, had the government acted prudently, total program spending today would be $134-billion, a far cry from the $148-billion budgeted by Mr. Martin.

Is limiting growth to this yardstick too restrictive Not according to the Prime Minister. In Budget 2000, then-Finance Minister Martin told Canadians spending growth would be limited to inflation and population growth. Mr. Martin's inaugural budget breaks his own commitment.

In the years ahead, Ottawa's tax revenues and budgetary surpluses will continue to grow, guaranteeing Mr. Martin the ability to spend even more. Surpluses - which amount to over-taxation by Ottawa - will total more than $16-billion in the next three years.

The government has a decade-long history of low-balling surpluses to diminish Canadians' expectation of tax relief. Today, "prudence" is an excuse used by Mr. Martin to fudge the revenue and surplus numbers to avoid providing Canadians with tax relief. If his low-ball spending gamble pays off and he survives the election, his government will be well positioned to re-open the spending taps, and fulfil Mr. Chrétien's reckless legacy.


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Franco Terrazzano
Federal Director at
Canadian Taxpayers
Federation

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