"Martin considers a 20% tax cut," screamed a recent headline in the National Post. As soon as it hit the newsstands our phones rang off the hook as the media sought our response. Instead of finding great joy in CTF offices, they found sober analysis and justified skepticism.

To begin, when it comes to Paul Martin and his missives about tax cuts, I like the Missouri license plate slogan: the Show Me state. Or if you prefer you can take Cuba Gooding Jr.'s line from the hit film Jerry McGuire, "show me the money!"

Paul Martin's shop is famous for floating trial balloons between budgets. But this balloon has to float for seven months and survive Cabinet posturing and pre-budget lobbying before it can land safely in next February's budget.

The present political dynamic provides the appropriate backdrop in which Martin's latest musings (via unnamed sources) must be analyzed. In mid-July, Health Minister Allan Rock, the other big leadership contender in the unofficial Liberal leadership race, received great ink on a leaked departmental discussion paper that proposed a $15 billion universal day-care program.

A week later, Jean Chretien shuffled his cabinet most pundits interpreted the "shift to the left" as a very public rebuke of Paul Martin and his not so quiet leadership machine.

Finally, Ontario Premier Mike Harris Mike Harris scored a major coup last Thursday with front page ink in the Globe and Mail detailing his plan to ensure that demands for meaningful federal tax cuts were included in the final communiqué resulting from this weeks Premiers meeting in Quebec City. (Note: Harris' plan worked.) Harris' pressure served to paint Martin as the obstacle to tax cuts.

With all these factors at play, it is no surprise that the Martin forces struck back with a vengeance. However, simple fact checking and sober political questioning seemed to disappear in the media rush to chase down this story that was described as "a bold shift in direction for the federal government."

A two-minute perusal of Chapter 6 of the 1999 federal budget (that's pages 119 to 138) reveals that Mr. Martin has already scheduled some $16.5 billion in targeted tax relief over the next three years. Given this fact, getting to $20 billion in tax relief by 2005 hardly seems like a tough task.

An extra five minutes of research reveals that Paul Martin has the room to undertake such moves much sooner. Our post-1999 budget news release clearly shows that in fact Mr. Martin has underestimated revenues in the last two and a half years by $26 billion. This figure will probably climb to $30 billion when the books are finally closed on fiscal year 1998/1999.

Moving away from the obvious, we must now turn to the political considerations. How does Paul Martin reincarnate himself into a tax cutter Hansard is replete with examples of his bombast and rhetoric denouncing opposition cries for across-the-board tax relief as irresponsible and heartless.

This is the same Paul Martin who refuses to re-index the tax system to inflation (AKA: bracket creep) which has resulted in tax increases in each and every one of his six budgets. Combine this with a 73% increase in

CPP taxes right through until 2003 and one quickly comprehends our skepticism when it comes to Mr. Martin's trial balloons.

Another important question is how will Paul Martin push this agenda through a Cabinet that is fixated on a children's agenda and even more spending programs Before we all rush to allow the Martin machine a free ride on fiscal policy, a greater analysis of his record and the political context of the day is warranted. Show us the money Paul, we're from Missouri.