While debt has to be one of the worst four letter words in the English language and most of us spend our whole lives trying to avoid it, for New Brunswick taxpayers, there may just be a silver lining to the giant grey cloud of government debt and deficit. After all, nothing keeps politicians from wasting money quite like not having any of it to spend.
The sheer size of the deficit is daunting – it is clear that New Brunswick is broke. Right now estimates put the deficit at around $750 million this year, or growing at over $2 million per day. To put this in perspective, it is costing every man, woman and child in New Brunswick about $998 each or $3,992 for a family of four. And this says nothing of the $8.4 billion in accumulated provincial debt.
But history shows that when governments have their fiscal “backs against the wall,” it forces them to cut wasteful government programs and limit the size of government.
Just look at what happened in the federal sphere in the 1990s.
In 1984, the Conservatives promised to cut the size of the deficit. But after eight years, the deficit grew by 15 per cent.
The Liberals, elected in 1993, were forced to deal with massive debt and deficit.
Between 1992-93 and 1998-99, total federal government spending dropped by 2.3 per cent. A seemingly meager amount, but consider that since 1962, federal government spending only showed a decrease three times in 48 budgets.
To get spending down, the federal government decreased transfers to provinces, cut government programs and got rid of unnecessary perks. By 1998, helped by increased revenues, the government managed to balance its books.
This story isn’t entirely unique.
In New Brunswick, Premier Frank McKenna had to cut spending to balance his early budgets.
In Nova Scotia, in 1999, Premier John Hamm, came to power because the Liberals had thrown Nova Scotia into a massive deficit situation. Four years later, he balanced the budget, had a surplus and cut taxes as a result.
In Ontario, Mike Harris balanced the budget after the Bob Rae’s NDP government overspent by billions. He also implemented huge across-the-board tax cuts.
Taxpayers voted each of these leaders back in the next election.
Over the next few weeks and months, there will be lots of pressure on newly-elected Premier David Alward not to cut spending. Opponents will say it’s too hard, that deficit fighting shouldn’t be made on the backs of . . . (insert special interest group here).
The New Brunswick Union of Public Employees for example calls for deficit fighting--just not deficit fighting that involves their union.
But everyone has to sacrifice. No exceptions.
Others will say New Brunswick should follow Nova Scotia’s lead and raise the HST.
But the latest fiscal update from the new Nova Scotia NDP government showed that raising taxes made revenues go down not up. In other words, tax increases killed economic growth making the deficit problem even worse.
So Mr. Alward should not see the looming deficit as a curse, but instead as a challenge. If he rises to the occasion, and if history is any indication, there may just be a political reward at the end of it.
Is Canada Off Track?
Canada has problems. You see them at gas station. You see them at the grocery store. You see them on your taxes.
Is anyone listening to you to find out where you think Canada’s off track and what you think we could do to make things better?
You can tell us what you think by filling out the survey