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FACT CHECK: Freeland won’t balance the budget according to PBO data

Author: Franco Terrazzano 2022/11/08

OTTAWA, ON: The federal government will not balance the budget in 2027-28, according to revenue and interest projections published recently by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. 

The federal government’s fiscal update projects a balanced budget in 2027-28 due to an extra $129.1 billion in revenue since the beginning of this fiscal year. 

The PBO published its Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Oct. 13. The PBO projects 2027-28 revenue to be $11.1 billion lower than the fiscal update’s projections. The PBO also projects interest charges to be $2.8 billion higher in 2027-28. 

Instead of balancing the budget in 2027-28, the federal government would run a $9.4-billion deficit using the PBO’s revenue and interest charge projections. This is a larger deficit than the fiscal update’s downside scenario, which projected an $8.3-billion deficit in 2027-28.

Budgetary balance 2027-28, Fiscal update vs. PBO* ($ billions)

 

Deficit projections fiscal update

Deficit with PBO projections*

Program spending

$491.9

$491.9

Interest charges

$44.8

$47.6*

Actuarial losses

$1.2

$1.2

Total spending

$537.9

$540.7

Revenue

$542.4

$531.3*

Budgetary balance

$4.5

-$9.4

* PBO projections

Revenue comparison ($ billions)

2027-28 Revenue PBO

$531.3

2027-28 Revenue fiscal update

$542.4

Difference (PBO – fiscal update)

-$11.1

Interest charge comparison ($ billions)

2027-28 Interest charges PBO

$47.6

2027-28 Interest charges fiscal update

$44.8

Difference (PBO – fiscal update)

$2.8

The PBO’s revenue and interest charge projections can be found here.

The fiscal update’s projections can be found here.