Giving taxpayers a reason to save
Finance Minister, Dr. Lyle Oberg recently told the Calgary Herald he would like to see the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) grow to around $50-billion in the next ten years.
This welcome news - while long overdue - is going to need buy-in from taxpayers if it is to go beyond the thought bubble above Dr. Oberg's head and the cluttered desks of local think-tanks.
To most people, saving is like flossing. They don't do it as often as they should, even though they know the long-term benefits. However, regular dentist visits and a quick peek at a few of those photos of gum disease run amok, are usually enough to get most people back on the flossing bandwagon. Unfortunately, there are no scary pictures to remind taxpayers of why their governments should be saving instead of spending.
But, there are lots of scary words: debt, layoffs, tax-hikes.
Albertans are the lowest taxed of all Canadians (although income taxes are lower in BC and Ontario for many income levels), yet our government spends more than any other provincial government in Canada at $9,526 per Albertan (Newfoundland is second at $8,749).
Alberta has the lowest taxes and the highest spending.
If you ran your family like the Alberta government you would be working for minimum wage yet living in a mansion with your new Porsche parked in the driveway.
This giant gaping hole between our tax revenues and our spending can only be financed in three ways: drawing down savings, going into debt or having other sources of non-tax revenue. In the 1980s and early 90s Alberta's spending hole was financed by going into debt. Now it's being financed by the sale of our one-time, non-renewable natural resources.
In fact, 42 per cent of all government spending last year was financed directly by the sale of oil and natural gas.
This is all well and good provided our government could guarantee each and every year resource revenues would cover 42 per cent of their spending. Unfortunately they can't.
In the past two decades, non-renewable resource revenues have financed upwards of 59 per cent of our annual program spending (2000-01) and downwards of 13 per cent (1991-92).
And these one-time resource revenues are not just going to pay for one-time infrastructure projects (if there was even such thing). These un-reliable revenues are being used to pay doctors, nurses, teachers and every other civil servant. So, what's the government going to do if and when oil and gas prices drop and resource revenues drop Fire doctors, nurses and teachers Raise taxes Go back into debt
But it doesn't have to be this way.
In addition to being a rainy-day fund that could be drained in an emergency, a $50-billion AHSTF would generate $4.4-billion annually in interest revenue. A $120-billion AHSTF would generate $10.6-billion annually in interest revenue - more revenue than the government is expecting to receive in non-renewable resource revenues this year. This new, stable source of revenues could replace non-renewable resource revenues as a source of income, allowing the government an option other than layoffs, debt and tax hikes when resource prices, and revenues, fall.
Moreover, that stable source of revenue could also be used to cut taxes.
In 2001, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation contracted a university professor to answer the question: If the Alberta government put 50 per cent of resource revenues into the AHSTF every year, how long would it take until the government could eliminate personal income taxes with the interest revenue
By 2015.
Shockingly these calculations were done assuming oil would only be $18 per barrel and natural gas would be $2.35/mcf.
So if you like having your doctors, nurses and teachers, savings is the best way to ensure we'll be able to keep paying in the future. And if you like tax cuts, savings is the best way to ensure you'll get the biggest tax cut ever.
Tell your MLA you want to see less spending and more saving, because Dr. Oberg's musings are worthy of action. Oh, and remind them to floss while your at it.