When asked if he took seriously a speech by Vice-President Richard Nixon, Senate Majority Leader Lindon B Johnson remarked, "Boys, I may not know much, but I know the difference between chicken sh_t and chicken salad."

Crude perhaps, but an equally fitting commentary on Mayor Glen Murray's latest evasion on tax relief.

According to the Mayor, City Hall-style tax cuts are measured in inflation-adjusted dollars. If the rate of inflation increased on average two percent over the next five years, and property taxes remained frozen, the Mayor will have delivered a ten percent realty tax cut in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Needless to say, references to inflation were conspicuously absent before the election, when Mr. Murray successfully campaigned on a ten per cent tax cut over five years.

Double speak and voodoo economics can characterize the Mayor's tax relief formula, but what about points for originality. After all, the 'inflation-based tax cut' maneuver was a clever deflection by Manitoba's most crafty politician. Cunning as he is, an economist Mayor Murray is not. But the spin and torque of his pre-election tax cut message does merit consideration; call this new accounting system Murraynomics.

The system hinges on the presumption that taxes should naturally increase by the rate of inflation. If tax rates remain frozen while inflation rises, those taxes are actually being cut. Make sense. By this logic, last year's realty tax freeze was actually a 1.6- percent tax cut because inflation rose by the same rate. Compliments to the Mayor! And this year's 1.5- percent personal income tax cut is actually a 3.1 percent cut for all Manitobans. Hurray!

Reality-check. Winnipeggers will enjoy tax relief when they pay less this year than last. The Mayor will achieve his promised tax cut when realty taxes fall ten percent by 2004.

But don't count on it. Murraynomics is a red herring designed to lower public expectations for tax relief. If the Mayor fails to deliver on his pre-election promise, at least it won't come like a bolt from the blue.

Mr. Murray began to back off from his bullish stand on tax relief only one month after the election. "I never promised a tax freeze in '99," said Murray to the Winnipeg Sun.

To dilute the tax cut promise even further, Mayor Murray recently announced that his five-year tax cutting timeline would not begin until 2000. What's next No tax relief until the earth spins off its axis

Expect the Mayor to scapegoat the Province soon. Once he discovers (if he hasn't already) that the ten percent cut is beyond his abilities, he'll escalate the rhetoric about it being all Filmon's fault for not phasing out the Provincial Education Levy on the property tax bill, as though it has anything to do with realty taxes. Remember, even if all education taxes are removed from the total property tax bill, Winnipeg's realty taxes would still be on average twice as high as Calgary's.

An annual two per cent tax cut over five years is not the heroic effort the Mayor made it out to be. City Hall's "no can do" attitude is partially rooted in the fear that the iron fist of the CUPE will smash down on any civic politician who presses for reform. And the Mayor is not about to stand in the way of CUPE demands for wage increases during this year's contract negotiations. After all, CUPE helped install the Mayor on the throne.

Let's not forget, however, that union members are also Winnipeg taxpayers, who would, arguably, benefit more with a raise via realty tax cuts than they would with a token wage increase gobbled up by inflation and the impact of bracket creep. A property tax cut once given cannot be taken away. A ten percent realty tax cut translates into ten percent more disposable income. As well, renewed economic activity in the City benefits everyone in the long run.

Hypothetically, a six percent salary increase over three years does not leave much by way of disposable income once income and payroll taxes to Ottawa and the Province eat up a third of it. A two-bit salary increase succeeds only in keeping City expenses disproportionately high.

The advantage of a ten percent realty tax cut for all Winnipeggers versus a pint-size wage increase for City employees will have to be weighed very carefully as contract negotiations commence. It's not only a choice between the good of the community and privilege for the few, but an opportunity for the benefit of all.